1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	346482	Voll verplant	Current	302	7.34	5.77	1.77
			Estimated	500	7.29	5.89	1.56

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
In Voll verplant, players create subway networks by filling in the station spaces on their individual game sheets. Using the numbers revealed by the cards, all players fill up their subway map with Xs in the station spaces. However, the number of times they can add stations to each line is limited, so they have to make tough choices. Players can score many points by getting their star bonuses in stations with many intersecting routes. Players also get bonuses by being the first to complete routes. Try to fill in all your stations to minimize the penalties and achieve a high score! In more detail, each player has their own sheet of paper, with the game including subway maps for Amsterdam, Berlin, Paris, and Madrid, with the first two being recommended for new players. Each sheet shows an interwoven subway system, with the system consisting of many subway lines; each line has a name, a number of indicator boxes, a number of empty station boxes on the subway route, and two bonuses. On a turn, a player reveals the top indicator card from the deck of fourteen cards, then each player individually and simultaneously chooses a subway line, then does something depending on which type of card is revealed: If a number is revealed, the player writes the number in one of that line's indicator boxes, then draws a X in each box in the line starting with the closest empty box, stopping when they've reached the end of the line, reached an already filled-in space, or drawn the indicated number of Xs. If a circled number is revealed, the player does what is described above, but they can skip over already filled-in spaces instead of stopping. If a star is revealed, the player draws a star in one of that line's indicator boxes, then in the closest empty space on that line they write a number equal to double the number of lines that pass through that station box. If a circle is revealed, the player writes nothing in an indicator box and draws a X in any empty station box. At the end of a turn, if a player has finished a subway line by reaching the final space, they announce this to all players, then score the larger of the two bonuses for this line; all other players cross out the large bonus and can score the small bonus for themselves if they complete this line later. Multiple players can score a line's bonus on the same turn. If the indicator card has a shuffle icon on it, shuffle all of the indicator cards together before the next turn. Once all the indicator boxes are filled, the game ends. Players tally their points scored for completing lines and for writing numbers in boxes, then lose points based on the number of empty spaces that remain on their sheet. Whoever has the highest score wins!

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/346482

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Voll verplant? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Voll verplant. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Voll verplant. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	346482	Voll verplant	1.00	5.77	7.34	1.56	302
1	2018	248861	Metro X	1.00	6.23	7.18	1.75	1,341
2	2019	283864	Trails of Tucana	0.91	6.72	7.46	1.26	2,870
3	2017	227758	Kokoro: Avenue of the Kodama	0.87	6.15	6.79	1.50	1,844
4	2016	200551	30 Rails	0.87	5.75	6.60	1.78	535
5	2018	233867	Welcome To...	0.84	7.42	7.59	1.83	23,236
6	2019	285789	Polyhedral Park Planner	0.84	5.55	7.18	2.29	59
7	2018	245654	Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition	0.84	6.94	7.24	1.48	9,672
8	2019	275188	Cat Sudoku	0.83	5.54	6.30	1.00	113
9	2018	244330	Scarabya	0.81	5.92	6.60	1.29	1,119
10	2016	183284	Factory Funner	0.80	6.17	7.28	2.35	1,064
11	2020	281075	Welcome to New Las Vegas	0.80	6.13	6.89	2.95	1,491
12	2020	275469	Floor Plan	0.79	5.80	6.65	1.89	665
13	2018	257726	Brikks	0.78	5.81	6.36	1.61	1,020
14	2020	229782	Roland Wright: The Dice Game	0.77	5.61	6.71	2.00	178
15	2018	251678	Railroad Ink: Blazing Red Edition	0.77	6.73	7.15	1.42	5,393
16	2020	266188	Seven Bridges	0.76	5.74	7.58	2.50	264
17	2015	143404	Castellion	0.76	6.22	6.93	2.06	1,892
18	2016	191925	Bandido	0.76	6.10	6.48	1.15	3,424
19	2020	299571	Bandida	0.75	5.74	6.60	1.62	522
20	2017	232661	Ada Lovelace: Consulting Mathematician	0.74	5.60	6.81	1.67	154
21	2011	89668	BITS	0.74	5.68	6.42	1.44	421
22	2020	323255	Box One	0.74	5.97	8.01	2.12	413
23	2017	225214	Legendary Forests	0.74	5.70	6.79	1.30	349
24	2012	114689	BITS Mitbringspiel	0.74	5.51	5.79	1.00	31
25	2019	251412	On Tour	0.73	6.53	7.03	1.48	3,802

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Voll verplant while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	346482	Voll verplant	5.77	1.00	5.77	7.34	1.56	302
1	2018	248861	Metro X	6.23	1.00	6.23	7.18	1.75	1,341
2	2018	233867	Welcome To...	6.22	0.84	7.42	7.59	1.83	23,236
3	2019	283864	Trails of Tucana	6.14	0.91	6.72	7.46	1.26	2,870
4	2018	245654	Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition	5.80	0.84	6.94	7.24	1.48	9,672
5	2018	244522	That's Pretty Clever!	5.39	0.73	7.41	7.61	1.88	18,627
6	2017	227758	Kokoro: Avenue of the Kodama	5.37	0.87	6.15	6.79	1.50	1,844
7	2018	251678	Railroad Ink: Blazing Red Edition	5.20	0.77	6.73	7.15	1.42	5,393
8	2019	269210	Twice as Clever!	5.14	0.73	7.05	7.49	2.35	6,645
9	2016	200551	30 Rails	5.01	0.87	5.75	6.60	1.78	535
10	2016	183284	Factory Funner	4.95	0.80	6.17	7.28	2.35	1,064
11	2020	281075	Welcome to New Las Vegas	4.91	0.80	6.13	6.89	2.95	1,491
12	2017	199561	Sagrada	4.84	0.66	7.36	7.51	1.93	31,978
13	2018	244330	Scarabya	4.82	0.81	5.92	6.60	1.29	1,119
14	2019	251412	On Tour	4.76	0.73	6.53	7.03	1.48	3,802
15	2020	316546	Clever Cubed	4.73	0.73	6.51	7.62	2.52	1,635
16	2015	143404	Castellion	4.72	0.76	6.22	6.93	2.06	1,892
17	2016	206931	Encore!	4.69	0.72	6.52	6.99	1.17	4,007
18	2018	251658	Sprawlopolis	4.68	0.67	7.02	7.43	1.84	7,121
19	2019	285789	Polyhedral Park Planner	4.64	0.84	5.55	7.18	2.29	59
20	2016	191925	Bandido	4.61	0.76	6.10	6.48	1.15	3,424
21	2020	304420	Bonfire	4.61	0.65	7.08	7.80	3.64	4,121
22	2019	275188	Cat Sudoku	4.60	0.83	5.54	6.30	1.00	113
23	2020	283155	Calico	4.58	0.62	7.34	7.72	2.20	10,473
24	2020	275469	Floor Plan	4.58	0.79	5.80	6.65	1.89	665
25	2018	257726	Brikks	4.53	0.78	5.81	6.36	1.61	1,020

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	346482	Voll verplant	999 Games	Hisashi Hayashi	Olga Cress	Number	Cities: Amsterdam (The Netherlands)	Bingo
			Schmidt Spiele			Puzzle	Cities: Berlin (Germany)	Network and Route Building
						Trains	Cities: Madrid (Spain)	Paper-and-Pencil
							Cities: Paris (France)	Solo / Solitaire Game
							Mechanism: Flip-and-Write
							Players: Games with Solitaire Rules
							Series: Klein & Fein (Schmidt Spiele)

Individual Game Analysis